September home sale stats. Number of sales down 29%, prices up 4.8%

I've been saying for some time that the market here is still strong and going up, and today's stats vindicate that. The highly anticipated September homes sales stats were released with better than expected results.

While the number of single family home sales was down 29% compared to the same month last year, overall prices were up 4.8%. Total condo sales were down 13.9%, with prices up 4.7%

This is pretty much in line with what was happening in California about a year and half ago, when sales numbers dropped but prices continued to climb. Many people (including me) think the Hawaii market follows CA by a year or two. The bad news is most of CA priced are now down about 15-20% from last year.

The overall median sales price for single family homes in all of Oahu remained at $650,000, the same as last month, while condo sale prices went up to $335,000. The highest we've ever reached for single family homes was $685k in June. While some people have been predicting a big crash, that has yet to materialize.

Prices were down most on the North Shore, where the median price dropped by 20.3% to $637,500. However, that number is quite deceiving because only 4 homes sold on the North Shore last month, so the price is effected more by the 2 low sales.

Even though the number of sales on the island were pretty low, with only 255 homes selling, the inventory of single family home was only up a little to 1936, which is the highest this year, but lower than all of last fall. Condo inventory was barely up to 2486, which is also lower than much of last year.

So why is inventory not up more, since sales are down so much? Answer - Because the number of new listings was down 7.7%, and there have also been a huge number of expired and withdrawn listings. So while less people are buying, a lot of people are also not selling. Most likely what has happened is that the people who were panic selling already sold, and now it's just people who are moving.

As you might expect, the areas in high demand are still rising in price.
East Oahu prices were up 5.1% to $940,000.
Hawaii Kai sales same as last year but prices up 11.5% to $847,500.
Metro Condos up 8.7% to $325,000.

And homes are still selling fast. Number of days on market - 45 days for single family and 42 days for condos.

Now - the important part. LISTEN UP: We always say that Kahala is the first to go up in an up market and the first to go down in a down market. When we get in a slump, we say, "Kahala will lead us out."
So here is some great news. In Sept compared to a year ago, 62.5% more Kahala and Waialae homes sold with the prices up 19%.

So if you're thinking of buying, you better get on it. There are only 5.1 months of inventory of single family homes for the whole island. 4.9 months of condos. Tell that to your family on the mainland. They'll be in disbelief.