Hawaii population grows. Running out of real estate in Oahu!

The Star reported this morning that "Hawaii's population rose at its slowest pace in seven years as nearly 10,000 residents left the islands in the year ending July 1, according to the U.S. Census Bureau... Since July 2006 the state added 4,753 U.S. residents for a population of 1,283,388, a 0.4 percent increase. There were 19,265 births and 9,269 deaths, as well as 4,112 new residents from other countries. But 9,673 people moved away."

When I look around at the homes and infrastructure of Oahu, it makes me wonder how we could possibly add 4753 people to our little state. Sure, some of those people moved to Maui and Kauai (probably 20 people or so moved to Molokai and Lanai) but Oahu is certainly where most of those people are now living.

Did we add 4000 new homes? Nope. Did we add new streets, sewers, utilities, and other infrastructure? Nope.

So as the state, for some reason, wants to continue to grow its population, where do all the people live? Honestly it beats me. We don't have any more room for new construction, except in Kapolei and Ewa, which means that the prices of homes in East Oahu and Honolulu are going to continue to rise and push the lower level income people out toward West Oahu, meaning Ewa Beach.

At some point very soon, it seems like the island just won't be able to sustain any more growth. The amount of water, power, and other utilities we use just won't sustain us. At some point we're going to have to adopt a slow growth program so that housing doesn't completely run and out and turn our island into a mess.

As of now we have about 800,000 people living on Oahu, which has already created a housing shortage and very high prices. If you want to live in a nice house on the East or Windward sides of Oahu, it's going to cost about $900,000. Seriously, you can't buy anything decent in Kailua or Hawaii Kai for under that price.

When my clients call and describe what they want, I think they imagine that a million dollars should buy something decent in Oahu, like maybe Mariner's Ridge in Hawaii Kai or Kailua Bluffs, but actually a million dollars is just a plane old average house nowadays.

So while the population growth might be "good" for the economy, it's going to cause more problems in the housing market (read: higher prices, less inventory.)

My advice - if you want to own something in Hawaii someday, buy it now before prices go even higher and the market prices you out forever.

The Oahu real estate market always picks up in January

It's Christmas time, and I'm in Montana visiting my wife's family, but between chasing kids and watching old Christmas movies, my mind has been on Oahu real estate. I'm getting showing requests even on Christmas Eve, with some buyers using their vacation time to shop for a home.

While the week of Christmas is always slow in every real estate market, the first couple weeks of January are always the big pick up in the market. There are plenty of sellers waiting to list their properties until after January 1st, and plenty of buyers also waiting to buy something until then.

The best way to stay on top of the pick up in January is to actually prepare before then. If you're planning to sell a home after the new year, get your documents in order now, take your pictures, prepare your advertising, and get your survey ordered. Don't wait until January 2nd when everyone else will be hustling. Instead, if you get all your ducks in a row now, come January you will be ahead of everyone else and ready to move.

If you're thinking about buying a house in Oahu right now, start narrowing your list of properties, preview them if possible, and make an appointment with your Realtor (me) early. I already have bookings for mid and late January, so you don't want to wait long! In fact I have clients coming just after Christmas, even before the new year begins.

Each year the inventory drops down a bit in the fall and picks up a lot in January, along with the number of sales. It's the perfect time to act. You want to be done with everything early so you're not stuck on the market in the late Spring. The hottest times of the year are January-February, and June-September.

So if you're thinking about moving in the New Year, now is the time to act.