September Oahu real estate sales

The September Oahu real estate sales stats are out, and some of them are not good. And I think I should start with this caveat - these numbers reflect one month, not the year, and also they reflect the sales that went into escrow somewhere between 30-90 days ago.

Is this market crashing? Inventory of homes for sale in Oahu has not risen any higher than it was 2 years ago. Seriously. In November 2006, there were just as many homes for sale, and MORE condos for sale than today. Can anyone say that about any other market?

Also there are only 8.1months of homes for sale in our inventory. That's lower than most of this year, and certainly lower than most markets in America.

The number of sales on Oahu year to date is down 26.5%. That's not too bad since we have been at record highs for several years now, but the prices are now starting to reflect the drop more. The median price of homes sold in Oahu dropped to $590k. Why?

Well for one thing, you have to look carefully at the report to see where the homes were that actually sold. The area with the most home sales was the area with the biggest price drops and most number of foreclosures - Ewa Beach. That area has been hard hit, mostly I think because all of the military homeowners that bought homes 3-4 years ago that are now selling short of their mortgage balance. While prices in other areas dropped some, there was no place like Ewa Beach, where short sale and foreclosures are common, and where dozens of homes are for sale in each neighborhood.

In Comparison, The homes in Waialae and Kahala were actually up 7% in median price, even though the number of sales was down 33.3%.

Conversely, In Hawaii Kai, the median price is down just 21.5% compared to last year. Why? Because the most expensive homes are selling there, while cheaper starter home are selling.

But there are also very positive numbers that reflect the strength of Oahu real estate. The total number of homes sold in Oahu real estate was down to 215 from 255 last year. However only 163 closed in February of this year, so we're well above that. Also the homes that sold were on the market for an average of 55 days, which is less than January and February of this year.

One interesting stat I saw was that Waikiki is still very active, with 56 sales last month, compared to 57 sales in the same month last year. The prices were down almost 20% compared to same month last year, but year to date, the prices are still up 18% since last year, and the number of sales shows that buyers are still in that market.

Regionally, most of the available inventory of homes is on the North Shore. But if you look at price ranges, the most homes available are in the $1million plus market, where there are 15.5 months of inventory.