Forbes says no double dip in housing.
Posted by Tony Kawaguchi, RA on Tuesday, April 6th, 2010 at 12:42am.The Fed stopped buying bonds, which means mortgage rates are up, but there won't be a double dip in housing according to an article in Forbes today. Not sure if I agree or not, but the article is certainly compelling.
They state 5 reasons:
First, the Fed is not planning on suddenly selling its holdings.
Second, they do not expect mortgage rates to suddenly spike as the Fed exits the market. Today, even though the Fed has ended its program of purchases, the "spread" between mortgage rates and the 10-year is only 120 basis points. Mortgage lenders are not having trouble finding the funds they need to lend.
Third, the amount of lending necessary to support the housing market in the next year is not particularly large by historical standards.
If existing homes sell at a 5.75 million rate in the next 12 months (a 10% increase vs. the previous 12 months), that should require about $230 billion in net new lending. Meanwhile, new home sales should require about another $90 billion. (New homes average $275,000, assuming 20% down and sales equal to 400,000.)
Fourth, housing prices have fallen below fair value. Relative to rents, national average home prices are about 10% below fair value and have been the lowest relative to replacement cost in more than 30 years.
Fifth, and perhaps most important, the labor market--the last of the lagging economic indicators--has finally fallen into place as a positive for the economy. Private sector payrolls increased 123,000 in March (198,000 including upward revisions to prior months). Meanwhile, civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes the self-employed and startup businesses, is up 1.36 million in the past three months, the most for any three-month period since 1994.
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