I can predict the future of real estate. Here's how.
Posted by Tony Kawaguchi, RA on Saturday, March 20th, 2010 at 12:58pm.I have a better way to predict the real estate market than any economist on Earth. It's more accurate than anything that a group of Ph.D.'s can come up with by crunching numbers and data. It has nothing to do with stocks, economics, currency markets, the price of oil, or the price of anything at all. It doesn't even have to do with the inventory of homes. I have a data set that, when it's all said and done, is the only set of 'data' that matters. This magical predictor is called - clients.
By about this time each year, I already know who about 70% of my buyers and sellers are going to be. I've been talking to them for months, some of them years, searching for properties, finalizing moving plans, and setting dates to go home shopping. Some of them call me 2 years in advance to let me know what they are going to be doing and when.
As of today, March 20th, I can already tell you that this year's volume will be about 50% more than last year (which by the way was a great year.) Today I have appointments set in April and May. Today I am speaking to buyers who will be moving here late summer. Today I also have sellers who plan to sell in the fall.
The economists don't know these people. Market predictors don't have my client's names and numbers, moving dates, and price ranges - but I do.
I know the future in March of every year, and 2010 is going to be huge.
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Share4 Responses to "I can predict the future of real estate. Here's how."
Excellent perspective, Tony! It's good to read a blog with a positive perspective. Many listen to the media and generalize what they hear into one's own personal world view. You've got the "location, location, location" in Oahu. And on top of that, you've put the pieces in place, piece by piece in your world! Best to you, Tony!
Posted on Wednesday, April 14th, 2010 at 5:56 PM.
[...]just read a real estate blog post by Tony Kawaguchi, aka “Aloha Tony“, titled, “I Can Predict the Future of Real Estate. Here’s How.”
It’s practical and positive. Tony picks a positive perspective (and can based on[...]
Posted on Wednesday, April 14th, 2010 at 6:11 PM.
I really like this article. It just goes to show that you can have all the statistics in the world, but it all really comes down to PEOPLE! At the end of the day people are what matters, and if you know your clients then that is all you need. Thanks for enlightening some people Tony, keep up the good work!
Posted on Thursday, April 15th, 2010 at 12:16 AM.
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Tony, I think this is an excellent post. I agree with most of it and expect it to stir the pot a bit. Its nice to hear someone else put some of my thought into words. It can get frustrating when consumers listen to the press who do little more than reiterate what someone says that has old data.
The only part I disagree with is the idea that you know it will for sure be up 50% because your calls and business are up 50%. You could be simply picking up market share.
Posted on Saturday, March 20th, 2010 at 1:35 PM.