Oahu Home prices will reach $1 million median price by 2020
Posted by Tony Kawaguchi, RA on Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 at 3:22pm.Some excerpts from a very interesteding article in the Advertiser this week below. Basically, The market is on its way up and the median single-family home could be more than $1 million by 2020, said renowned Honolulu economist Paul Brewbaker. He has been right on the money on every prediction he has made about our market in the last decade.
Last month, single-family home sales rose 21.7 percent to 157 from the year prior's 129. Condo sales soared 44.4 percent to 231 from the 160 in February 2009. The median price paid for a condominium rose 0.3 percent to $298,000 from the last year's $297,000.
Oahu's housing market bottomed out in 2009 with prices for homes around $560,000 last May and condo prices around $300,000 last August.
While there might be some pullback related to the eventual end of the homeowner tax credits and historically low interest rates, Oahu's market overall is just going to keep seeing prices gradually firm up, Brewbaker said.Single-family home prices have been gaining momentum for about a year, according to Brewbaker's seasonally adjusted data... Brewbaker anticipates that Oahu's next price acceleration will take place around 2012 or 2013 and that somewhere between 2018 and 2020 the median price will rise above $1 million.
"Believe it," said Brewbaker, who raised eyebrows in 2003 with a prediction that Oahu's median home price would surpass $600,000 in the last cycle. In fact, the market topped out just shy of $645,000 in 2007, he said.
"The tragedy here is that a lot of people are waiting (to get into the housing market)," Brewbaker said. "If they don't act by April, they'll miss the tax credits. If they wait beyond what the Fed is calling an extended period, they'll be facing higher interest rates."People who are worried about a near-term possibility of the housing market unraveling "are exposing themselves to a more costly housing environment a couple of years down the road," he said.
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