Summer starts in March in Oahu. You could be living in Oahu by now.

It's March, which means it's beach season for us in Oahu. January and February were too cold, with an average temp of about 78degrees. Now it's 80degrees so we are just barely warm enough.

Mostly it's the water that was too cold, at about 70degrees in the winter. Now that it's March, the water is 75, and the kids love the beach again.

And why do you not live here yet?

Warm weather means more tourists, which means more people wanting to buy vacation homes and rental properties on Oahu. Why don't you own one yet?

The best places to live and go to the beach in Oahu are Kailua and the North Shore, especially around Haleiwa, Waimea, and Sunset, where the sand is nice and white, and the water is nice and blue. Another great place to own property by the beach is Malaekahana, because it's cheaper and the beaches are fanatastic.

There are a couple small beaches in Hawaii Kai, but I'm not showing you where they are unless you buy a house from me...

Oahu real estate - January 08 statistics are out!

The Oahu real estate sales statistics were released today, showing some serious change and yet no change at all - at the same time. The results were surprising, because many people have been saying for time that the Hawaii real estate market is going to drop like the CA market. Not so according to the statistics.

MEDIAN PRICE
The median price for single family homes in Oahu was $600k, which is the same as it was one year ago. For much of 2007 the median price of Oahu homes was around $640k-$650k, with this past month being the lowest in 12 months. The price peak in Hawaii homes seems to have been June of 07, when prices reached $685k.

The median price of Hawaii condos (Oahu) $324k, which is just about what it was all of last year. In 8 of the last 12 months, condos in Oahu were $325k or less. Condos seem to have been flat in value last year, but up about $10-15k since 2006.

Days on Market (DOM)
For the properties in Oahu that closed in January, the average single family home took 61 days to sell, while the average Oahu condo took only 42 days to sell. In comparison, last January it took 60 days to sell a house and 55 days to sell a condo! So you can see how the Oahu real estate market for the most part hasn't changed much! In fact Oahu condos are selling faster now than they were last year.

NUMBER OF SALES
The total number of sales is where the change in the Oahu real estate market is showing a slow down. 228 single family homes sold in all of Oahu in January, which was 13.3% less than last January. The number of condos sold was down 22.5% compared to last January. That's a huge drop, but as you'll see, it's not the whole story. You would expect that the drop in the number of sales would mean an increase in inventory, but...

INVENTORY
Hawaii real estate still has low inventory of homes for sale. In January there were 1876 single family homes for sale and 2349 condos for sale. In comparison, last month we had 1874 homes for sale and 2346 condos for sale. The inventory of Oahu homes actually decreased!

TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME
Here is a number that might suprise you. Even though the number of Oahu homes sold dropped by 13.3%, and the median price remained the same, the total dollar volume is actually up 4.3% compared to last January. That means that while the median price is the same, individual home prices actually are higher.

However the total dollar volume of Oahu condos sold was down significantly, by 20.2% since last year. So when you combine the single family and condo sales in Oahu, they are down only 6.3%. So with the total number of sales down 13.3% but dollar volume down only 6.3%, you can see that overall, price are actually rising.

AVERAGE SALE PRICE
If you need more evidence of prices rising in Oahu, the average sale price of single family homes was $954,670, compared to only $793,777 last January. This is probably a better measure of prices than median prices.

Big rise in real estate prices in some areas of Oahu:
In some areas, there were shockingly large jumps in prices.

• For all Honolulu homes (town), the median price rose 36.6% to $1.1million!
• For Kapahulu and Diamond Head, prices rose 22.4% to $909k.
• Homes in Kaneohe rose 17.8% to $733k.
• Homes on the Windward Coast rose 18.9% to $594,500.
• In Pearl City and Aiea, the price of homes rose 27.7% to $629k.

These numbers indicate that prices remain strong in Oahu even though the number of sales has dropped. At the same time, inventory has actually dropped since last month, in a traditionally slow time of year!

While much of the country is suffering a housing meltdown, the Hawaii real estate market remains strong!

December 07 Hawaii Housing sales statistics are out

Each month the Honolulu Board of Realtors puts out the housing sales statistics for the entire island of Oahu. Once again, while the entire mainland seems to be going through the worst housing market in many years, the Oahu market remains strong. In fact if you're a buyer in any area except Ewa Beach and the West side of Oahu, it's still hard to find a good house.

A total of 593 properties sold on our tiny island last month, with a median price of $610k for single family homes and $320k for condos. And while homes around America are taking months to sell, the average home in Oahu takes just 51 days to sell, and condos take 47 days.

You might notice I'm saying Oahu specifically, and that's because the markets on Maui and Hawaii are much slower these days. Investors and second home buyers have all but left the market, which really hurts the neighbor isles. Here in Oahu though, where jobs are a plenty and the market is far less dependant on tourists and investors, our market looks great.

One special note - last year I moved from Hawaii Kai to Aina Haina, about 2 miles down the road, and prices here have skyrocketed ever since. The median price in Aina Haina last month was $1,228,600, as compared to $816,000 in November. Island wide, Aina Haina prices are up more than any other area, with a 7.3% increase since last year.

Another sign of strength in the Oahu real estate market is the declining inventory. Yes, it's declining! We had 1874 homes on the market in December, compared to 1952 in November. The number of condos available was down also, to 2346. Here's the best part - the inventory of total available properties is lower today than it was a year ago!

The one area of Oahu that is lagging is the North Shore, with 123 homes for sale and only 3 sales last month. That region is getting hit hard because most of the buyers there are from California.

Hawaii population grows. Running out of real estate in Oahu!

The Star reported this morning that "Hawaii's population rose at its slowest pace in seven years as nearly 10,000 residents left the islands in the year ending July 1, according to the U.S. Census Bureau... Since July 2006 the state added 4,753 U.S. residents for a population of 1,283,388, a 0.4 percent increase. There were 19,265 births and 9,269 deaths, as well as 4,112 new residents from other countries. But 9,673 people moved away."

When I look around at the homes and infrastructure of Oahu, it makes me wonder how we could possibly add 4753 people to our little state. Sure, some of those people moved to Maui and Kauai (probably 20 people or so moved to Molokai and Lanai) but Oahu is certainly where most of those people are now living.

Did we add 4000 new homes? Nope. Did we add new streets, sewers, utilities, and other infrastructure? Nope.

So as the state, for some reason, wants to continue to grow its population, where do all the people live? Honestly it beats me. We don't have any more room for new construction, except in Kapolei and Ewa, which means that the prices of homes in East Oahu and Honolulu are going to continue to rise and push the lower level income people out toward West Oahu, meaning Ewa Beach.

At some point very soon, it seems like the island just won't be able to sustain any more growth. The amount of water, power, and other utilities we use just won't sustain us. At some point we're going to have to adopt a slow growth program so that housing doesn't completely run and out and turn our island into a mess.

As of now we have about 800,000 people living on Oahu, which has already created a housing shortage and very high prices. If you want to live in a nice house on the East or Windward sides of Oahu, it's going to cost about $900,000. Seriously, you can't buy anything decent in Kailua or Hawaii Kai for under that price.

When my clients call and describe what they want, I think they imagine that a million dollars should buy something decent in Oahu, like maybe Mariner's Ridge in Hawaii Kai or Kailua Bluffs, but actually a million dollars is just a plane old average house nowadays.

So while the population growth might be "good" for the economy, it's going to cause more problems in the housing market (read: higher prices, less inventory.)

My advice - if you want to own something in Hawaii someday, buy it now before prices go even higher and the market prices you out forever.

Fall in Oahu

It's October, and fall here in Oahu is a great time of year. While our seasons don't change a lot, they do change. I love the fall and winter in Hawaii, where day and evening temperatures seem absolutely perfect for human beings to live in. It's about 75 at night and 85 in the daytime, with a constant 15mph breeze from the North West.

It's always a joy to live here in Hawaii, but fall and winter seem like the best times of year. You never need AC, and sometimes it gets cool enough to want a long sleeve shirt. I don't ever wear a jacket. It's perfect.

Also, the waves will be coming up on the North Shore soon, which means great surf, great competitions, and tons of tourist activity on the North Shore.

So what does this have to do with Oahu real estate?

Winter in Hawaii means tourists who are serious tourists. They probably don't have kids in school, which makes it easier to live anywhere in Oahu. They probably have money, because they're vacationing in the off season when people with regular jobs don't usually travel.

Also, toward the end of the year there is always a rush of people who either need to buy or sell a house for tax reasons. Some people want to get a new rental on their tax return for this year. Some people are just the opposite - they want to make sure there is not a rental on their return next year.

If people are buying in the fall season, they are probably pretty serious. Most people don't shop for homes in this season, because they are focused on holidays, school, etc. So if someone is shopping for a house in the fall, they are probably pretty motivated for some reason.

In the fall, the weather in west Oahu is great too. Ewa beach, Kapolei, Makakilo - all those areas are cooler in the fall, which is nice because in the summer it can be hot. So it might be easier to sell those areas in the fall.

It's fall in Oahu, time to get your real estate plans going.

New City Ferry Means Less traffic in Oahu's future

Traffic has been a growing problem in Oahu for some time now. Actually there is pretty bad traffic in the entire state. Especially bad are the commutes from Ewa Beach and Kapolei to Honolulu. Recently I've noticed that it's getting worse and worse from Kailua and Kaneohe to town too. It can take about 40 minutes to get from Kailua into town, and depending on where you're going in town, it can take a while once you get into town too.

To relieve the traffic a bit, the The city of Honolulu has launched its new ferry which will take people from the west side into town. It's called simply, "TheBoat." The new Oahu commuter ferry service started serving the public last Monday.

From the Star:

TheBoat now makes three weekday trips in each direction between Barbers Point
Harbor in Kalaeloa and Aloha Tower. The ferries is linked at Barbers Point to new bus routes serving. From Aloha Tower, buses will go to the University of Hawai'i-Manoa and to Waikiki via Ala Moana. A single fare pays for the one hour ferry ride and the buses at each end

The one-way fare for adults is $2, and bus passes also will be honored. Fresh-brewed coffee and a "grab-and-go" breakfast will be available for purchase on TheBoat, and restrooms are also available.

How many people will actually take the ferry? I'm not sure, but if you have to drive from Barber's point all the way to town each day, I'm sure it would be nice to sit on a boat instead, assuming you don't get seasick. The traffic driving from Waianae and Ewa Beach is pretty bad, so any relief we can get would really help. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say this: if the traffic problem in Ewa was completely resolved, home prices there would skyrocket.

I know it's not just the traffic, but that is the biggest issue for Ewa Beach. That's why this ferry and also the train that is supposed to be built in 15-20 years will be huge for that community. If there was a lot less traffic, retailers would be willing to build down there, and way more people would be willing to live there.

What I don't understand is - if the city is willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a train, why not just spend a fraction of that widening the roads in and Ewa and Kapolei? Homes in Ewa and Kapolei are of great quality, and being newer, larger, and cheaper, they are markets that have alot of potential if the infrastructure would support it.

On that topic, now that the new courthouse is coming to Kapolei in a couple years, there should be quite a bit less traffic coming all the way into town from the west side. I don't know how many people come to the courthouse in Honolulu everyday, but it has to be in the thousands. I've been there at 7am and there is a line at every door.

If you think about the number of people coming all the way from the west side to the courthouse, and even the people in Aiea and Pearl City going to court, you realize that the new court and all the surrounding things that will come with it are going to be great for west side real estate prices.

The more Kapolei grows, the more that West Oahu real estate will benefit.

Ok, You're planning to move to Hawaii, but when should you start looking at houses?

Most of my blog posts are prompted by questions that people ask me by email or phone. This week someone emailed me and said they are planning to move in April, about 8 months out, wondering if they are looking at houses too soon.

Well the short answer is you should start as soon as possible.

As soon as you even the thought of moving to Hawaii, even if your plans are not definite, you should start looking at homes here. The more time you have to look at homes, the more you'll understand our market. You'll see that homes in nice condition tend to sell in about 45 days, and you'll be able to see the sales prices very close the list price in certain areas.

Also the longer you have to look at the market, the more you'll be able to get a feel for what type of homes come up for sale in certain areas. For instance, in Hawaii Kai there are only a few homes on the marina for sale at any given time. If something comes up that you really like, you might have to move on it before your time to move comes, because only a few are listed each year. Maybe 30 a year, which is not a lot.

In Mililani, you'll find that some homes have an ocean view, but not many, because it's about 15 miles inland. In Kailua, only a few homes a year are listed for sale that are lake front, on Enchanted lake. Or if you want Lanikai, you better start looking really early, like a year, because half the listings in Lanikai are completely junk, and the other half tend to be about $5million.

If you study the market in Oahu for a while, you'll find that in many areas, homes are each unique, because a) there were not big home developers planning this island and b) depending on type of person lived in the house, there could be a lot of strange improvements made over the years.

You just can't be too prepared when looking for a house in Oahu. The more you know, and the longer you have to learn, the better your buying experience will be. Then if you come to Oahu and spot something that you know hasn't been on the market for a long time, you'll be aware that you should act on it fast. I've had several clients who didn't act fast enough or write an offer high enough, who ended up really disappointed later.

I had one client who kept wanting to offer about $20k under the asking price, even though I kept telling him he would never get the offer accepted. Each of 3 times, his offer was flat out rejected and sold to someone else within days. Why? Because he didn't understand that the market in Oahu is not like the mainland. Our supply is limited and the sellers are very confident (in most areas, not Ewa Beach.)

So if you even have an inkling that you may be coming to Oahu in the next year or two, it's time to start watching the market. Email me all your parameters and I'll setup an automatic Hawaii MLS search for homes for you so you can keep track of what's going on.

New condos in Kailua by Schuller / Dr Horton

There has been much speculation about the new condos that are supposed to be built in Kailua by Schuller homes. The project, which will be called Ironwoods at Kailua, is planeed to be 153 condos on the north end of Kailua.

People have been calling and emailing me about this project for a year or so, and today I had a nice woman from Kailua calling me for more information because the Schuller site doesn't say much. So I called the Schuller office and spoke to a guy who said very plainly, "we don't have any new imformation about it yet."

I asked him, "Is it going to be a long time before you know anything? Years?"

He said, "It's going to be a long time."

The Dr Horton site doesn't have anything more than the number of properties that will be there. There are no floorplans, no prices, no nothing. I think they are having legal problems with the project. Either that or they are trying to finish off the Makakilo and Waianae projects, because that is what the guy said he has right now.

Whenever they actually do come out with the prices or any new information, I'll post it here, but you'll likely have to camp out in front of the sales office to make sure you get one. They are going to sell like hotcakes. Actually, they are going to sell like Kailua condos, which sell faster than hotcakes.

When you look up condos in Kailua over $500k, it's pretty slim trimmings. Only Bluestone, an older building, is priced around $800-$900k. Whereas in Hawaii Kai condos are everywhere, Kailua has very few. That's part of it's charm - mostly single family homes.

So wait until 2008 or later and I'll put some info here about Ironwood, the newest mysterious condos in Kailua.

You should choose Oahu

Why should you buy a house in Oahu rather than Maui, Kauai, or the Big Island? (Don't even think about living on Lanai or Niihau).

1 Oahu has the best health care. If you live on the outer islands and have a serious health problem or emergency, they will fly you to Oahu, during which time you may die. Serious.
2 The outer islands are slooooooow. Everything is slow. Cars are slow, people are slow. Change is slow. It will drive you nuts. Unless of course, you are slow.
3 The traffic in Kauai is crazy. Yes, it's worse than Oahu. If you want to get from Liue to Kapaa or even worse, to Princeville or Hanalei, you better be prepared for the slowest drive of your life. There is a one lane road the whole way.
4 The outer islands shut down at about 8pm, while Oahu is up all night. If you want a late night snack, you better be on Oahu.
5 Real Estate in Oahu is going up, the outer islands have been going down for 2 years. Why? Because their market is too dependant on tourism. They have no local industry. We have all the businesses in Hawaii.
6 If you lose your job on the outer islands, you'll be moving or on welfare. On Oahu, you can apply for a new job at one of our thousands of employers. Oahu's market is far deeper.
7 Oahu has symphonies, rock concerts, trade shows, outlet malls, every kind of car dealer, and soon, Whole Foods and Target. We have it all. The outer islands are just now enjoying Walmart. Yuck.
8 If you buy real estate in Oahu, you'll never have to go to the outer islands except to vacation. About once a year I take my family to the Big Island or Kauai just for fun. If I lived on Oahu, I would have to come over here for a lot of things. Things that the outer islands will never have.
9 It costs about $50 to fly inter-island. I can get to the outer islands anytime I want.
10 Schools. This should actually be much higher ranked in this list. The schools on the outer islands are for the most part, terrible. In fact, much of the reason that Hawaii as a state gets a bad rap for schools is that the outer island schools are lumped together with the Oahu schools. If you look at the school reviews, almost all the top 50 are on Oahu.

Kailua town condos - no car needed

Recently I've had a few buyers for Kailua town condos. If you want to live somewhere that allows you to walk from home to the shopping, restaurants, and beach, Kailua town condos are ideal.

There have been some retirees moving from California and some young first time buyers that have really liked the condos in Kailua town lately. If you want to live right in the heart of Kailua town, there are several great condo complexes that allow you to walk to the grocery store, Starbucks, and everything that Kailua town has to offer. Of course, next year that will include the new Whole Foods that is coming. We can't wait for that.

There's Poinciana Manor and Gardenia Manor, which are two similar complexes that are low rise buildings. They're a little old but pretty well taken care of. You get 2 parking spots with most units, which is a great benefit. Both of the complexes have great grounds with lush landscaping and koi ponds. Very nice ammenities. Poinciana has a saltwater pool too.

At Hokulani, a newer complex, you only get 1 parking spot, but you get a much newer complex. The units are generally a little smaller, but they're cheaper, at around $350k-400k, so if you're on a limited budget, they are a great option.

Windward cove is a unique complex, where each unit has a rooftop lanai. They are a bit bigger and therefore a bit more money, at about $500k. Very limited parking.

Windward Harbor is right next to Windward Cove, but I think all the units have 2 parking spots. Also, they have a great pool and tennis court. Nice ammenities and a nice koi pond. There isn't much guest parking, which is a bummer.

There are a few others that are nice, but these are my favorites.