The Canadian dollar is up and the US dollar is down everywhere! Canadians buying Oahu real estate!

Today I met with some Canadians who are here enjoying our beautiful winter (read: rainy but 75deg). They informed me that the Canadian dollar has risen about 20% on the US dollar over the last year or so!

WOW! Imagine being able to buy Oahu real estate at a 20% discount! That is exactly what has happened for people in Canada. Last year my clients visited and looked at some nice condos, and even thought about buying back then, when the Canadian dollar bought only 85 cents of the US dollar. Today it's trading around 99cents, while just 2 weeks ago it was trading at $1.09.

The weaker dollar is GREAT news for Hawaii real estate, because it means that international buyers are flocking to Hawaii to buy their dream home at a huge discount. In fact, just in the condo building we were looking at, a few Canadians are currently buying a condo.

While the rest of the US mainland real estate market has suffered, the weaker dollar means that Canadians, Australians, and other internationals are going to be supporting our market here with their stronger currency. While last year only a tiny percentage of buyers were international, I would think that in 2008 the number of international buyers will rise exponentially.

So thanks to Bernanke's rate cut, our dollar is weaker and the real estate market is stronger! If you've been waiting for the right time to buy Oahu real estate, now is the time!

Disney in Oahu! Great news for Oahu real estate!

The Advertiser reported today that Disney has just decided to build a luxury resort at Ko Olina beginning next year.

Here are the highlights that are pertinent to Oahu real estate:

• The resort is expected to open in 2011 and provide 1,000 jobs.
• There are absolutely no plans for a theme park.
  Lingle said the project will add jobs and help the community.
• Ko Olina master developer Jeff Stone said he was elated by the news. "It's a dream come true."
• It will actually increase public access to the beaches at Ko Olina becayse this development will add parking.
  This development should help in the larger plan of nurturing Kapolei as a secondary urban center, creating the true "second city."

Whenever new jobs come to Oahu, and national attention is brought to our island by a big name like Disney, it's sure to help the real estate market in Oahu. Particularly, in this case, the market in Ko Olina and Kapolei. With Kapolei so close and hundreds of properties at Ko Olina, thie new resort can only help the cause.

As a side benifit, the new jobs will mean more people driving to Ko Olina, and less people driving to town. That should help with the traffic from the west side into town. Great news!

This is really a great thing for Oahu real estate. And also for my kids.

September home sale stats. Number of sales down 29%, prices up 4.8%

I've been saying for some time that the market here is still strong and going up, and today's stats vindicate that. The highly anticipated September homes sales stats were released with better than expected results.

While the number of single family home sales was down 29% compared to the same month last year, overall prices were up 4.8%. Total condo sales were down 13.9%, with prices up 4.7%

This is pretty much in line with what was happening in California about a year and half ago, when sales numbers dropped but prices continued to climb. Many people (including me) think the Hawaii market follows CA by a year or two. The bad news is most of CA priced are now down about 15-20% from last year.

The overall median sales price for single family homes in all of Oahu remained at $650,000, the same as last month, while condo sale prices went up to $335,000. The highest we've ever reached for single family homes was $685k in June. While some people have been predicting a big crash, that has yet to materialize.

Prices were down most on the North Shore, where the median price dropped by 20.3% to $637,500. However, that number is quite deceiving because only 4 homes sold on the North Shore last month, so the price is effected more by the 2 low sales.

Even though the number of sales on the island were pretty low, with only 255 homes selling, the inventory of single family home was only up a little to 1936, which is the highest this year, but lower than all of last fall. Condo inventory was barely up to 2486, which is also lower than much of last year.

So why is inventory not up more, since sales are down so much? Answer - Because the number of new listings was down 7.7%, and there have also been a huge number of expired and withdrawn listings. So while less people are buying, a lot of people are also not selling. Most likely what has happened is that the people who were panic selling already sold, and now it's just people who are moving.

As you might expect, the areas in high demand are still rising in price.
East Oahu prices were up 5.1% to $940,000.
Hawaii Kai sales same as last year but prices up 11.5% to $847,500.
Metro Condos up 8.7% to $325,000.

And homes are still selling fast. Number of days on market - 45 days for single family and 42 days for condos.

Now - the important part. LISTEN UP: We always say that Kahala is the first to go up in an up market and the first to go down in a down market. When we get in a slump, we say, "Kahala will lead us out."
So here is some great news. In Sept compared to a year ago, 62.5% more Kahala and Waialae homes sold with the prices up 19%.

So if you're thinking of buying, you better get on it. There are only 5.1 months of inventory of single family homes for the whole island. 4.9 months of condos. Tell that to your family on the mainland. They'll be in disbelief.

Nationwide new home sales fall, Hawaii real estate sales slow but steady

This morning a report came out that nationwide new homes sales dropped in August to the lowest level in seven years.

Sales of new homes dropped by 8.3 percent in August from July, the Commerce
Department reported, driving down sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
795,000 units. That was the lowest level since June 2000, when sales clocked in
at a pace of 793,000

However, August numbers were right in the middle of the credit crisis news, which kept many buyers on the sidelines. Since then the Fed dropped rates 50 basis points to make money more avaialable to banks.

On the flip side, The Commerce Department also reported Thursday that the economy grew at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the April-to-June quarter, the strongest showing in just over a year.

The Associated Press said last week that the odds of a recession are now higher than one-in-three but are still under 50 percent. In another report, fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, raising hopes that the recent weakness in the jobs market won't be long lasting.

As usualy, the nationwide data is worse than the news in Hawaii. Most real estate in Oahu is selling just fine, but there is one builder in Ko Olina, Centex, that is having a hard time selling, and sales in Ocean Pointe have slowed enough for the builder to offer about 3% in concessions to the buyer, plus full upgrades.

Nationwide, housing declines. Oahu real estate bucks the trend.

NAR reported this morning that nationwide Housing markets continued to decline in August. The number of existing home sales dropped for the 13th straight month.

Sales fell 4.3 percent from July. Sales have fallen 12.8 percent since last August's pace of 6.31 million homes.

Lawrence Yun, senior economist for NAR, blamed the loss on the mortgage market crisis. "The unusual disruptions in the mortgage market, including a significant rise in jumbo loan rates, resulted in a fairly high number of postponed or cancelled sales, with many buyers having to search for other financing when loan commitments fell through," he said in a statement.

Some good news - prices broke a 12-month decline. The national median existing-home price for all housing types rose 0.2 percent to $224,500 in August from a year ago, when the median was $224,000.

Wow, I am so happy to be in Hawaii real estate and not anywhere else in the US. Although yesterday I was told that the market in NY is pretty great if you're in or near Manhattan. A friend of mine had to stand in line to buy a 1bedroom condo for about $550k. Amazing prices and markets in both Honolulu and NY!

FED to the resuce! Will Hawaii real estate boom again?

Mark this day in history. It's the day the national housing and mortgage crisis turned around and the economy of America was boosted like never before. We hope.

With a 0.5% discount rate cut and a 0.5% Fed funds rate cut, the Fed did far more than anyone expected. While most expected a 0.25% cut in the Fed funds rate, I don't think anyone was expecting this huge move. It's a signal to all that the Fed is ready to act against a huge mortgage and housing crisis.

Mortgage rates should probably go UP today, but within a few weeks should come down nicely. We expect buyers everywhere to believe that now is the time to get back in the market. What do we expect for Hawaii real estate?

Well Hawaii's market hasn't slowed the way that other states have. I should say, Oahu's hasn't. The other islands have been going down for over a year. Oahu real estate should continue to slowly (or rapidly) climb, now that buyers have a better confidence about the market.

Buyers at this point should (we hope) believe that mortgage rates are going to be lower, that housing has seen its worst already, and that prices are going to go up again.

I have a few listings that have been sitting for a couple months, which is long in Oahu, since homes are selling in about 40 days. These listings should now see more activity. Realtors should start calling their buyers who were on the sidelines.

Time to start selling!