The Oahu market this fall is doing something it has not done in a while: giving buyers a little breathing room. There are more homes to choose from than a year ago, and they are sitting longer before they sell. If you are buying, listing, or holding here, that shift changes how I would play it.
What the numbers actually show
Per List Sotheby's August 2026 market data, Oahu had 794 active single-family listings, up slightly from a year ago, and 2,512 active condos, up 4.1%. New listings jumped more, up 14.5% for single-family homes and 6.4% for condos versus last August. At the same time buyers eased off: pending single-family sales were down 7.6% and pending condos down 3.2%. More sellers are coming to market, fewer buyers are signing at last year's pace. On the neighbor islands the same story shows up as slower turnover, with Big Island homes averaging around 105 days on market, up from about 99.
Where buyers have room right now
The added inventory is not spread evenly. The softness is most usable in a couple of bands, single-family homes in the $500,000 to $700,000 range and condos in the $1 million to $2 million range, where listings are stacking up and sellers are more willing to move on price, repairs, or closing help. In the tightest, most in-demand pockets, good single-family homes still go fast, so "the market is cooling" is not a green light to lowball everywhere. It is a reason to be selective and patient.
If you are listing this fall
Price to today, not to last spring. With more competition on the shelf and buyers taking their time, the homes that sell are the ones priced right from the start. The overpriced listing that a hot market would have rescued a year ago now just sits and goes stale. A realistic first number and good presentation matter more this fall than they have in a while.
First-time buyers should not sit this out
If you have been waiting on the sidelines, more inventory and a little negotiating room is exactly the window worth using. Hawaii's HHFDC offers below-market first-time-buyer loan programs, with rates recently in roughly the 5.40% to 5.95% range depending on the program. To be clear, those are loans with real terms and eligibility rules, not free money, so run them with a licensed lender against your own numbers before you count on anything.
What I am telling clients this week
Buyers, you have more choices and more leverage than a year ago, so use it, but stay decisive on the genuinely good listings. Sellers, meet the market on price and you will still sell well; fight it and you will chase it down. If you want a read on your specific price band or neighborhood, reach out and I will pull the current numbers for you.
Tony Kawaguchi, REALTOR, license RS-66616, The Kawaguchi Group, eXp Realty (RB-21841). 20+ years and $1B+ in Oahu sales, leading a team of 20+ agents. Educational only, not financing advice; confirm any loan program with a licensed lender.