Nov. 8, 2022

Sales are down 41%, but the market hasn't crashed yet

Yes, the number of sales has dropped dramatically - by 41.7%.  That's right, the number of sales has dropped nearly in half since last year, 2021, which was the craziest year in real estate history. 

But while the market has slowed a lot, prices are still UP 5% since last year.  On a monthly basis, prices peaked in May of this year at $1,153,500, so from that time, the median price is down by about $100k to $1,050,000. 

 

 

Here's a chart of monthly median prices: 

It seems prices are back to about the same as January, which makes sense because buyers were going nuts offering way too high on listings earlier this year.  We needed to cool down, that's for sure.  

What's amazing is that listings are still selling in about 19 days, and the average listing sold at 99.8% of the list price.  

The most telling numbers are:

1. there were only 285 new single family home listings, which is far lower than last year at this time, meaning inventory is still very low in Hawaii. 

2. There are only 198 pending single family sales, which is down 50%, so sales will continue to slow for a while. 

With interest rates at 7.5%, (though most people aren't actually getting that rate) it's likely that prices will soften through next year until rates level out or drop.  

Buyers are finding opportunities to ask for seller credits and offer below asking price, as many sellers are still thinking like it's 2021.  Smart sellers are pricing at the low end of their markets to make sure they get sold quickly! 

July 13, 2022

Sales still steady despite low inventory

The number of sales dropped 20% since last year but median sale prices have risen again.  Last year was a crazy year of sales and things have now normalized.

Despite the Year-over-year sales drop, the last 4 months have remained steady - The average number of single family homes sold (March through June) was 346 and the average number of condos sold was 664. This volume is comparable to pre-pandemic levels! Although pre-pandemic, homes stayed on the market twice as long. 

While sellers are receiving their full asking-price or more, we did see price corrections in the active inventory. Buyers are reevaluating budgets and strategies as interest rates are rising quickly. Also, the active inventory is still a fraction of what was available in 2019.

Compared to last June, sales of condos in the $700,000 - $900,000 price range have doubled. For Single-family homes in June, most of the sales (29%) took place in the $1 - $1.5 million price range.  

June 29, 2022

Hahaione Valley home for sale

Just listed - a beautiful single level Hahaione Valley home for sale for $1.85mil.  Single Level are some magic words in real estate, because there are hills everywhere but very few flat lots that allow for a single level house.  

Hahaione is in the heart of Hawaii Kai, close to shopping and has a great school.  We're happy to represent our past clients who have enjoyed this home for several years.  

Check out the large living room and the super cool rock wall. 

Hahaione Valley houses

The kitchen was updated with custom cabinets and a new island with a cool hanging light. Everyone loves a large kitchen! 

Hahaione valley has constant cool breezes, and rains more than most parts of Hawaii Kai, keeping it cooler at night. This property also has a nice flat yard for the kids. Flat yards are hard to come by in most areas of Oahu. 

And my favorite part is the outdoor living space, this huge lanai with room for the whole family to enjoy. 

 

Posted in moving to Hawaii
May 9, 2022

Hawaii Real Estate Can Slow and Rise Simultaneously

Can real estate prices rise while sales slow down at the same time?

In Hawaii it can. While the number of sales dropped off by almost 3% last month compared to last year, prices are now still up 19.1% and we still continue to see them rising.
My experience over the last 30 days, while the stock market has been nearly crashing, is that anything priced correctly will be bid up by 100K or more with multiple offers.
As of today, there are still very few listings available. In Hawaii Kai, there are only three homes available under 1.5 million.  In Kailua, there are 11 available, but they are all in need of renovation. If you want a nice home in good condition, it’s still well over 1.5 million in those areas.
While interest rates are now over 5% for a 30 year fixed mortgage, our listings are still getting cash offers with prices getting bid up by multiple cash offers.  It's amazing how much cash people have these days. 
The bottom line in Hawaii is there is a lasting inventory shortage, and we still need a lot more listings available in order for the market to stop rising. 
The North Shore has only three homes available under $1.5 million. And between $1.5 and $2 million there are only 2 homes available.
So while the number of sales is dropping due to low inventory and higher interest rates, prices continue to rise, and I see them still rising another 5% to 10% this year.

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April 12, 2022

A New Record for Median Sales Prices

The first quarter of 2022 closed with new record median sales prices for both single-family homes and condos at $1,150,000 and $515,500, respectively. How did that happen?

Fewer single-family homes were sold in March and the first quarter, with the most significant decline occurring in the $899,999 and below range, down 56.3% with just 70 closings in March.

On the other end, the luxury single-family home market is picking up with 27 single-family homes sold in the $3 million and above range, marking a 68.8% jump year-over-year.

In the condo market, sales in the $700,000 to $799,999 range recorded the highest volume increase, up 125.8%, with most of these sales occurring in the Metro and Ewa Plain regions. 

“More luxury sales coupled with declining affordable inventory and sales are pulling the median price upwards in the single-family home market,” said HBR President, Chad Takesue. “It’s no surprise that rising prices are pushing more prospective buyers to consider condos, driving the steady and strong demand we’ve been seeing for these properties.”

March 6, 2022

No, the Hawaii market is not slowing down

"In 100 years." is what I joked to my friend Chris who asked me this morning, "When will the market slow down?" The Hawaii real estate market has little to no inventory, which made the median home price rise to yet another new record high of $1,125,000, up 22.6% from this time last year.

The condo median sales price rose to of $497,000, up 8.6% from one year earlier.

The key is that there is no inventory, and I have no idea when that could change with more and more remote workers wanting to move to Hawaii.  And it's possible that Hawaii real estate is the best hedge against inflation on Earth.  What else can you count on to be there for you if we have hyperinflation, or even just modest? 

Here are the numbers: 

 

When will it slow down? I don't see a catalyst to an end of this market end for a while.  Not war, not a stock market crash, not rising rates.  

Feb. 7, 2022

One huge, gigantic factor that will make Hawaii prices rise again

When will Hawaii real estate slow down?  Are prices going up or down this year? I get these questions often, with so many people feeling left out of the market.  In January, prices continued to rise in Hawaii, with single family median prices at over $1mil and condo median prices at over $500k. 

But there is one big giant factor that many people are forgetting: There have been no Japanese people in Hawaii since 2020.  

In a normal year, Japanese buyers make up between 10-20% of all the purchases made in Hawaii, but since Covid started in March 2020, nearly 2 years now, Japanese travelers have been stuck at home.  From my personal contacts in Japan, I can tell you that they are chomping at the bit, anxious to get back to Hawaii and to buy real estate.  

Most Japanese buyers usually buy with all cash, since they can't get a loan in the US, and they tend to offer at asking price, because looking for a bargain or a 'deal' is not the normal Japanese way.  They see a price, they pay it.  

I predict that 2022 will be the year they return to Hawaii, and when they do, Hawaii real estate prices, mostly Oahu, and mostly condos, will spike one more leg up.  So do you want to buy before the Japanese return or after?  

 

Hawaii real estate statistics 2022

Jan. 21, 2022

The Best Value in Waikiki: $299k Condo

Not everything in Hawaii over $1million!  Check out this great value in Waikiki for only $299k in Waikiki Townhouse, which is rented for $1500/month. 

This corner unit 1 bed 1 bath condo has a nice renovated kitchen and the ability to use the enclosed lanai as a 2nd bedroom.

Recent upgrades include renovated kitchen and floors, and it has a washer/dryer in the unit. 

And a nice city view from the living room:

 

If your budget is up to $300k, this is a great opportunity! 

MLS 202132093, listed for $299,000 FS with a sandwich lease that expires Oct 2029. 

 

Posted in waikiki condo
Jan. 9, 2022

Home prices continue to rise and condo sales are strong

For the last five months, the median sales price for a Single-family home has stayed between $1 Million and $1.05 Million.  Although the Year-over-Year closings are down 10%, December 2021 closings were still higher than November. Median days on the market were only 11 days and sold 2% OVER the asking price.  While the average sales price in December 2020 was $1.1 Million, the average sales price in December 2021 was $1.3 Million. Home prices in Hawaii continue to rise! Most sales increases were seen at the $1 million and up price points. In 2021, properties sold in the $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 range were up 84.5%, homes that sold in the $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 range were up 95.6%, and homes sold at $2,000,000 and above more than doubled, up 145.5%

 

Condo sales are staying strong, with new listings up 13.1%, pending sales jumping to 16.7% and total inventory in escrow rose 11.5%. Chad Takesue, Honolulu Board of Realtors President for 2022 explains, “With high demand and dismal inventory of single-family homes, buyers turned their sights to condos, driving competitive activity in some areas and leading to low supply in this market as well. As a result, every price point in the condo market saw more sales in 2021 and every region across Oʻahu marked more sales.”  

 

Dec21 Stats

Dec. 9, 2021

Condo owners - it's a great time to sell!

Condo owners - it's a great time to sell!  The market has set a new record low of only 9 median days on the market!  Buyers are loving the more affordable price points of condos.  While most of the sales volume occurred in the $400,000 - $499,999 range, nearly all price points in the condo market experienced a positive change in sales volume! 

Single-family home sales are still rising at 21% increase over the year.  They are also moving quickly at only 11 days on the market.  And around 61% of single-family home sales closed OVER the asking price in November. 

 

NOV2021 Housing Stats

“It’s evident that O‘ahu buyers are entering the market well-prepared and are wasting no time, working with their REALTORS® to get their offers submitted and accepted as soon as possible,” said Shannon Heaven, president, Honolulu Board of REALTORS®. “Additionally, a large portion of sellers are receiving bids above their original list prices, which tells us that we remain in a competitive market despite the expected holiday lull.”

“Sales in both the single-family home and condo markets appear to have leveled off over the past few months. However, we continue to exceed 2020 sales, which dropped due to the initial waves and economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic,” added Heaven.