At least one guy thinks so, and he's featured in this article in Forbes.

""We need one and a half million houses per year just to keep up with population growth," Wesbury said in an interview with Steve Forbes.

"And then if you throw in, you know, fires and tear-downs and just worn-out properties, we need 1.6 million or more per year. Right now, we're down to about six and a half, seven months' inventory whether you look at new homes or existing homes."

"Housing completion numbers also contribute to this dire picture, with December 2009 privately owned housing completions reaching a 768,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That's down 11.2% from the 865,000 completions in November and down 25.3% from the 1,028,000 completions in December 2008."

Bottom line in Oahu is that there already is a shortage.  I'm seeing listings get snapped up very quickly with multiple offers, because our inventory of homes for sale in Hawaii is so low.

Thanks to my friend Keahi for finding the article.