The rate cut a lot of buyers have been waiting for has not arrived, and it may not this fall. The more useful news is that Hawaii's market has kept moving anyway, so the real question is less "when do rates drop" and more "how do I plan around where they are."

Where rates actually sit

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed at 6.71% as of September 3, 2026, about the highest in a year and up slightly from the week before. Some forecasts have rates easing toward the mid-6s, roughly 6.4%, by the end of the quarter, but that depends on incoming economic data and is not something I would bank a purchase on. Plan for the rate you can get today, and treat any dip as a refinance opportunity down the road.

Hawaii is outrunning the rate story

Higher rates were supposed to cool things, and on volume they have not. July 2026 data had statewide single-family sales up more than 13% year over year and condo sales up nearly 11%, with Oahu single-family sales up about 20%. Buyers are adjusting to the rate environment rather than waiting it out.

Houses and condos are two different markets

This is the part that changes your strategy. On Oahu, single-family supply is tight, under three months, and well-priced homes sell fast; the Oahu single-family median ran about $1,224,500 and good listings were going in around two weeks. Condos are looser, closer to six months of supply statewide with more room to negotiate, and softer still on Maui and Kauai, where the statewide condo median sat around $560,000. Same island, two very different negotiating positions depending on what you are buying.

How I would approach a purchase at these rates

Get fully pre-approved before you shop, so you know your real payment at today's rate and can move when the right home shows up. If you are after a single-family home in a tight pocket, be ready to act. If you are buying a condo, especially on a neighbor island, take your time and use the leverage the extra supply gives you. Buy on the payment you can carry now, not on a rate cut you are hoping for.

What sellers should price for

Single-family sellers in strong areas still hold the upper hand, but the buyer pool is rate-sensitive, so a sharp initial price still beats a hopeful one. Condo sellers are competing harder and should price and prepare accordingly.

The move I would make now

Rates near 6.7% are the reality to plan around, not a reason to freeze. Whether that means buying now and refinancing later or pricing a listing to move, the right call depends on your property and your numbers. Work the financing piece with a licensed lender, and reach out to me for the market read. This is general information, not financing advice.

Tony Kawaguchi, R(B), The Kawaguchi Group at eXp Realty. Hawaii licensed broker RB-21841, 20+ years and over $1 billion in Oahu sales.