The Oahu real estate sales numbers are out for October, and you may have seen a not-so-optimistic article in the Star Advertiser today.  However, I could not be more sure that our market is about to JUMP UP in sales, because the Star's article missed the most important statistics. . I outline them below.   sunset_beach_house_640

Yes it's true that the median price stayed at about $600k last and the number of sales dropped 17 percent to 241 (read: A LOT) compared to from 290 in October 2009. 

As the article points out, that was because last year at this time, the effect of first time buyer credit was in at its height.

No kidding.  The Federal gov't created a false market, so OF COURSE sales were lower this October.  But October is ALWAYS a lot slower than spring and summer sales,  while last year there were more single-family home sales in October than in any other month.  In fact, December had the second-most sales last year, when usually December is one of the slowest months.

But the real story of the Oahu real estate market is in these numbers:

  • The year to date number of sales through October is up 15.6 percent for single family homes and 16.3 percent for condos.
  • The average home sells in 35 days, while last year it took 52 days.  In Hawaii Kai, it takes just 26 days!
  • PENDING SALES ARE UP 28.5%!!!  There were 329 Pending sales in October, compared to 256 last October, and 177 in October '09, which means November and December sales will be a lot higher than last year's. 
  • Homes sold in October with 94.4% of the list price. Last year, they sold at 92.7%
  • There are only 1472 homes for sale, last year there were 1660, In Oct 2008, there were 2386!
  • There is only a 6.2 month supply of homes for sale, compared to 7.8 last year and 10 months in Oct 2008.
  • Through the first 10 months of 2010, median prices are actually UP to $590k, from $585k last year.

Two years ago I predicted the bottom of the market in this blog, and some people thought I was crazy.  They were wrong.  Sales went up, prices went up, everything got better.  I didn't use a crystal ball.  I used the one statistic that matters most: The number of pending sales. 

Pending sales are currently about DOUBLE what they were October 2008, which means November and December of this year are going to blow away last month, and we are going to end this year with a huge jump in sales.  

Why is this true?  Because once again the government has intervened, this time in the form of buying billions of dollars worth of its own bonds, to artificially lower interest rates. 

So thanks Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, whether we agree or not, there is no denying that you are helping the real estate market big time!