When will Hawaii real estate slow down? Are prices going up or down this year? I get these questions often, with so many people feeling left out of the market. In January, prices continued to rise in Hawaii, with single family median prices at over $1mil and condo median prices at over $500k.
But there is one big giant factor that many people are forgetting: There have been no Japanese people in Hawaii since 2020.
In a normal year, Japanese buyers make up between 10-20% of all the purchases made in Hawaii, but since Covid started in March 2020, nearly 2 years now, Japanese travelers have been stuck at home. From my personal contacts in Japan, I can tell you that they are chomping at the bit, anxious to get back to Hawaii and to buy real estate.
Most Japanese buyers usually buy with all cash, since they can't get a loan in the US, and they tend to offer at asking price, because looking for a bargain or a 'deal' is not the normal Japanese way. They see a price, they pay it.
I predict that 2022 will be the year they return to Hawaii, and when they do, Hawaii real estate prices, mostly Oahu, and mostly condos, will spike one more leg up. So do you want to buy before the Japanese return or after?