Let's keep it simple, the Hawaii real estate market overall has declined, and seems to have hit a bottom. Here are areas in and around Honolulu where prices actually ROSE since August last year:

  • Aina Haina (My neighborhood) up 21.4%
  • Hawaii Kai, up 4.7%
  • Kailua, up 0.6%
  • Windward Coast, up 7.4%
  • Wahiawa, up 14.8%
  • Ewa Plain, up 0.7%

Not surprisingly, the North Shore and Kahala got hammered, down 44% and 46%.  Why? Because those buyers are often from California, and California's is so horrible that the state cannot even pay tax refunds. In 2007, over 80% of the buyers on the North Shore were from California.

Also not surprising (to me at least), were the number of sales. While overall number of sales year to date is down 15.6%, the month to month comparison is only down 3.1% compared to August '08, they are actually up in some areas, which is why sales are about flat compared to last August, with 247 sales compared to 255 sales.