I'm not usually the type to make predictions about the future, but in this case I'm just observing what I saw in the past month. In August I had several buyers shopping for homes all over the island. From Ewa Beach and Kapolei to Pearl City and over to Hawaii Kai, Kailua, and the North Shore. I put a lot of miles on my car.
And the thing that I found everywhere was that there were very few properties available under $1million, and the good ones get picked up quickly. I viewed listings one day after they came on the market, only to find that they were sold a couple days later, while my clients were still thikning.
So what will the housing report say when it comes out tomorrow? The numbers will point to even lower inventory in Ewa and Kapolei, with higher numbers of homes in pending status. They will show a higher number of homes sold than all of this year, with prices actually RISING in some parts of the island.
Yes that's right, price will RISE in West Oahu, where they fell unreasonably low very quickly last year. Now this is just based on my personal experience with my own buyers and sellers, all of whom found the market to be picking up.
I just closed on a home in Royal Kunia with this beautiful kitchen - multiple offers for $612,300. Some people thought I was crazy because it seemed above the comparble sales. But in the end, a home is worth whatever a buyer will pay for it. The appraisers just try to find comparable sales for whatever the buyer has agreed to pay. No wonder almost all appraisals come in at exactly the sale price.
Bottom line - the market picked up in August, you'll see tomorrow in the numbers, but I saw it all month in real life. In contract negotiations, in shopping for homes, in everything I did, I saw a market that was going UP, not down.