If you have been watching Hawaii's housing market, the headline is that single-family homes are holding up while condos are not. The Big Island shows that split more clearly than anywhere else right now. In Kailua-Kona, condo inventory has stacked up to nearly nine months of supply, and a stretch of rough weather has added pressure on the visitor economy that props up much of the island's resort and rental market. Here is what the numbers say and how I would act on them.
Kailua-Kona Condos: A Clear Buyer's Market
Through the end of August, the year-to-date median condo price in Kailua-Kona sat around $572,500, down about 7.8% from last year. Closed sales are down roughly 14%, while active listings are up almost 25%. That works out to about 8.8 months of supply, which is well past the 5 to 6 months that usually signals a balanced market. One number stood out to me: in the $1 million to $2 million condo range there were around 30 active listings and only one pending sale.
Sellers in that range are competing against each other, not against buyer demand. Pricing a few percent above the last comparable sale and waiting for a bidding war is not a plan that fits these conditions.
Single-Family Homes Are Softer, Not Broken
Kona houses are telling a calmer story. The year-to-date median sat near $1,185,000, down about 5.6%, but closed sales are up almost 9% and supply is around 4.5 months. Days on market have stretched to a median of 38, noticeably longer than last year, and pending sales slipped from 55 in July to 44 in August. Buyers have more time and more leverage than a year ago, but well-priced homes are still selling.
At the top of the island's market, luxury is playing by different rules. Midyear data for Big Island sales above $3 million showed 36 closings and a median sold price of roughly $8.56 million, with the Kohala Coast driving most of the activity. Those buyers move slowly and pay for scarcity.
Why the Storms and Tourism Numbers Matter
State figures show August visitor arrivals fell 5.6% from a year earlier, to about 772,000 visitors, and visitor spending dropped 9.7% to $1.59 billion. Flooding and damage from Hurricane Lala passed south of the islands in mid-August, followed a week later by Tropical Storm Moke, which hit Hawaii Island. Kauai and Hawaii Island saw sharper declines than Oahu. Through the first eight months of the year, arrivals are still up 1.8% and spending up 4.1%, so this looks like a bad month, not a collapse.
It still matters for investors. Many Kona condos depend on vacation rental income or on owners who rely on strong tourism to justify their carrying costs. When bookings soften at the same time as mortgage rates sit near 7%, the math on a leveraged condo purchase gets tight quickly.
What I Would Do If You Are Buying or Selling
For buyers, this is a window to negotiate. Ask for credits, request a full set of association financials and reserve studies, and ask what special assessments are pending. After the storms, also confirm flood zone status and insurance quotes before you go under contract, because premiums can change the monthly cost more than a price reduction does.
For sellers, price to the current market using the most recent closed sales and not last year's highs. Professional photos, a clean inspection, and a realistic number in the first two weeks are worth more than a price cut at day 60. If you are not forced to sell, a single-family home in a good location is a much easier hold than a condo in an oversupplied building.
The Takeaway
The Big Island is not one market. Houses are steady, luxury is selective, and condos are where buyers hold the cards. If you are thinking about buying, selling, or investing anywhere in Hawaii and want numbers specific to your building or neighborhood, reach out and I will pull the comparable sales for you.