Mawaena Kai is one of Hawaii Kai's best marina front communities. Builtin 1988, which is much later than most other marina front complexes, Mawaena Kai has a modern feel and plenty of open spaces that lead to the beautiful marina. Most of the units come with a dock, and this 2nd floor unit has one of the best mooring spots.  

An exquisite unit that has been fully renovated, with wide marina frontage and spectacular views from every window!
The finished loft adds a bonus of 100 sq ft of living area. 

Upgrades: split AC - tiled lanais - plantation shutters - stainless
steel appliances - built-in glass cook top and convection self-cleaning
oven - quiet-close cabinetry - all premium-grade slab granite and
limestone counter tops - double sink sapele vanity in master bath and
walk-in shower  - stylish top of the line faucets, bath fixtures, and
cabinet hardware throughout - “low-sonne” contemporary bathroom ceiling
exhaust fans – office suite by Organized Hawaii in loft - Levolor
pleated Solar Day/Night track blinds in Master - brand new stain master
berber carpeting and premium interior painting – attractively furnished
and  immaculately maintained! 

Just look at the great view from the living room, right over your own private dock so you can take your boat out to the ocean! This unit was listed for $789,500 for 4 days, and my very happy clients will be closing next Friday!

On October 3, 1863, President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed the last Thursday in November as an official national holiday.  People had been celebrating it unofficially for many years, beginning at Plymouth Colony with William Bradford.  But during the civil war, Lincoln wanted Americans to be especially thankful to God for their blessings.

He wrote:

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies.  To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God.  In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.  Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore.  Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years, with large increase of freedom.

No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things.  They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.

It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American people.  I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens.   And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand, and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the city of Washington, this third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the independence of the United States the eighty-eighth.

A. Lincoln"

I'm currently reading "Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations."  It's a very insightful and fact filled book which is part history and part economics lessons.  Readers will learn mucuh about Keynesian economics, which in part caused the downfall of Germany's paper money and the massive hyper-inflation that resulted.

In short, Keynsian economics says the governments should intervene in recessions by printing money and lowering interest rates, in order to stimulate the economy.  Sound familiar? Bernanke and Obama are strict Keynsian economists. 

In the 1920's, "When the debacle was finally stopped, the old (German) mark, which had once been worth a solid 23 cents, was written off at one trillion old marks to one new one of the same par value. The most spectacular part of that loss was lost in the mark's final dizzy skid; all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 (190 billion of them) were not worth enough... to buy a single newspaper or a tram ticket."

The US if following EXACTLY the same political and economic patterns as 1920's Germany. The most important lesson for individuals (as opposed to politicians and government bodies) is to see what people did who survived and even profited from the chaos of hyper-inflation.

While money had no value, some things actually grew in value.  While most people lost their entire savings (since money was worthless) and stocks crashed, some people made forturnes. The 2 categories that actually grew in value were: 

• Commodities  - gold, silver, metals, agriculture, raw materials
• "Real estate is a classic hedge against inflation. The name is apt. Real estate is a real value. The intrinsic value of real estate is indestructible... If a man owns a piece of land to live on, it is equally good for living on before, during, or after an inflation. Its intrinsic value for living on is not affected by prices, even land prices."

It's a great book. Not an easy read, but worth every minute. It's available to read online here.

Time to start buying up Hawaii real estate?

I'm often asked if Oahu is a safe place to live. Well here some great news for Honolulu. CQ press has taken the 2009 FBI crime data and compiled lists of the safest and most dangerous cities in America.  Honolulu is the 2nd safest city over 500,000.  

CITIES OF 500,000 OR MORE POPULATION (34 CITIES)
Lowest Crime Rate Ranking 

1. El Paso, TX
2. Honolulu, HI
3. New York, NY
4. San Jose, CA
5. San Diego, CA
6. Austin, TX
7. Portland, OR
8. Los Angeles, CA
9. Seattle, WA
10. Fort Worth, TX 

On the flip side, these are the 10 Highest Crime Rate Rankings

1. Detroit, MI
2. Baltimore, MD
3. Memphis, TN
4. Washington, DC
5. Atlanta, GA
Indianapolis, IN
7. Philadelphia, PA
8. Milwaukee, WI
9. Houston, TX
10. Columbus, OH

Here is the report

The North Shore is usually thought of for huge waves and world class surfing. In the summer the North Shore's biggest and wave, Waimea Bay, turns into a beautiful calm beach.  While these are the two things that mostly draw people to Waimea, there is also the Waimea valley waterfall walk. 

Some people call it a hike, but when you see it you will agree that it is just a pleasant walk.  The waterfall walk is about a half mile or so on a nicely paved path, which starts at this little info shack and ticket counter.  It costs about $30 for a family of four if you live here, and about $100 if you don't.  

Along the way you'll see some beautiful trees, plants, and probably a peacock or two.  It's not steep except for one spot near the end, and the gentle trade winds keep you cool most of the way. 

The path is beautifully lined with lush green foliage like this.

The waterfall itself was smaller than I thought it would be, at only about 20 feet high. The water is a little cool but warm enough to swim in.  There was even a lifeguard there to help people get in and out, and to provide flotation devices so you can float around the pool.  It was completely amazing, idyllic. 

 Just think, you could live just a few miles from here by buying a house on the North Shore. Prices start at around $800k for a modest little house, all the way up to $10 million for a beach front estate.  

Reuters ran an article about the College Town real estate phenomenon, and I think many people don't realize that Honolulu is a major College Town. The University of Hawaii in Manoa is a huge part of the Honolulu cityscape. 

And since a lot of the Campus Housing at University of Hawaii is really bad, (although some was just renovated) it can make great sense to buy a condo for your kids rather than rent.  And that is exactly what some recent clients of mine did.  They found that buying a nice townhouse meant their daughter could live in a nice area, and they could have a nice place to stay when they visited her.  

Plus, many of the rentals around UH Manoa are so expensive and so gross, it's hard to imagine your kids living in them. I've seen some nasty apartnments in Manoa, with mold everywhere, and roaches the size of small cats.

In the article, a parent named Kate, said “We decided we could create a safe, good quality home for her and we thought it would be a good investment on top of it.”

From the article: "Kate and Dale represent a new trend in the already-popular college town real estate market: they're called “parent investors,” a savvy group of homebuyers who are opting to purchase a house in their kids' college town instead of spending money on rent or dorm fees."

"The lure of college real estate appears to be recession-proof. Seventy-three percent of those surveyed said they see a significant number of investors buying homes near campus and renting them out despite the economic downturn, with only 21 percent seeing a decrease in this trend over the past five years."

"Costs are a big factor: Room and board fees for 2010-2011 have seen a 4.6 percent jump at a public four-year state universities and a nearly 4 percent rise for private nonprofit universities, the College Board reports."

Stanford University's Palo Alto, California is the most expensive college town market, with an average home listing price of $1,385,652, and Honolulu is the 2nd highest in the nation, at over $800k. 

College towns like Honolulu have plenty to offer in terms of culture, restaurants, medical facilities and a robust economy.

And that is just another reason that Oahu real estate has done so much better than the Neighbor Islands of Maui, Kauai, Mokokai, Lanai, and the Big Island. 

The Oahu real estate sales numbers are out for October, and you may have seen a not-so-optimistic article in the Star Advertiser today.  However, I could not be more sure that our market is about to JUMP UP in sales, because the Star's article missed the most important statistics. . I outline them below.  

Yes it's true that the median price stayed at about $600k last and the number of sales dropped 17 percent to 241 (read: A LOT) compared to from 290 in October 2009. 

As the article points out, that was because last year at this time, the effect of first time buyer credit was in at its height.

No kidding.  The Federal gov't created a false market, so OF COURSE sales were lower this October.  But October is ALWAYS a lot slower than spring and summer sales,  while last year there were more single-family home sales in October than in any other month.  In fact, December had the second-most sales last year, when usually December is one of the slowest months.

But the real story of the Oahu real estate market is in these numbers:

• The year to date number of sales through October is up 15.6 percent for single family homes and 16.3 percent for condos.
• The average home sells in 35 days, while last year it took 52 days.  In Hawaii Kai, it takes just 26 days!
• PENDING SALES ARE UP 28.5%!!!  There were 329 Pending sales in October, compared to 256 last October, and 177 in October '09, which means November and December sales will be a lot higher than last year's. 
  
• Homes sold in October with 94.4% of the list price. Last year, they sold at 92.7%
• There are only 1472 homes for sale, last year there were 1660, In Oct 2008, there were 2386!
• There is only a 6.2 month supply of homes for sale, compared to 7.8 last year and 10 months in Oct 2008.
• Through the first 10 months of 2010, median prices are actually UP to $590k, from $585k last year.

Two years ago I predicted the bottom of the market in this blog, and some people thought I was crazy.  They were wrong.  Sales went up, prices went up, everything got better.  I didn't use a crystal ball.  I used the one statistic that matters most: The number of pending sales. 

Pending sales are currently about DOUBLE what they were October 2008, which means November and December of this year are going to blow away last month, and we are going to end this year with a huge jump in sales.  

Why is this true?  Because once again the government has intervened, this time in the form of buying billions of dollars worth of its own bonds, to artificially lower interest rates. 

So thanks Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, whether we agree or not, there is no denying that you are helping the real estate market big time!

Nanea Kai is a complex in the heart of Hawaii Kai built in 2003.  This $625,000 unit is 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1582 sqft inside, plus the open lanai.  Plus the maintenance fees are under $350 a month!

It has 1 attached garage and 1 open parking spot.  Hardwood and laminate wood floors, corian counters, stainless appliances, and a large loft that serves as a family room or play room.  Nanea Kai is just a couple minutes walk to the Hawaii Kai town center and the Safeway center. 

Check out the beautiful complex built in '03, trees starting to grow a bit.

This nice kitchen great room opens up to thelarge living space.  Nice stainless upgrades. 

Via Advertiser: News yesterday that Southwest Airlines might begin flights to Hawaii!

CEO Gary Kelly said the company will make a decision before the end of the year on whether to add larger Boeing 737-800 airplanes to its fleet, which would "bring us the opportunity to consider a destination like Hawaii."  Kelly said the earliest Southwest could take delivery of the 737-800s would be 2012.

State tourism liaison Marsha Wienert:  "With their network of flights, especially in the Midwest, it opens up a whole new market that has been virtually untapped for some time," she said.

"Keith Vieira, senior vice president for Starwood Hotels & Resorts in Hawaii, echoed the sentiment.  "This opportunity with Southwest will enable us to better reach their customer base in the Southwest area of the United States, which is a very good market to Hawaii. ... It will be a definite boon to travel for us if they're able to connect to us directly," he said."

Adding Hawaii would also provide a destination for regular Southwest customers redeeming their frequent-flier credits.

This is great news for the economy of Hawaii.  More flights mean more tourists = more money for Hawaii. I have often heard people in the midwest and mountain states wish they could use their Southwest miles to fly here.  Now they just have to wait a couple years and hopefully they can! 

This also tells us that Southwest thinks the Hawaii tourism industry is rebounding enough to make a big committment like this. 

All good news!