Photo: Cosmin Serban on Unsplash.
The September numbers for Oahu came out in the first week of October, and the headline is a split I keep seeing: the median single-family price slipped 3.9% to $1.11 million, while the condo median rose 2.8% to $523,000. According to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, house sales rose 6.2% and condo sales fell 8.1% over the same month last year. A List Sotheby's summary of Honolulu Board of Realtors data gives the rest of the detail below.
A lower house median does not mean houses got easy to buy
When I see a median drop, the first thing I check is what sold, not just what it sold for. Median days on market for single-family homes was 16 in September, compared with 26 a year earlier. Thirty-one percent of houses sold above their original asking price, up from 25% last September. Homes moved faster and more of them sold over the first ask. A median can fall simply because a bigger share of the month's sales were in lower-priced areas or smaller homes.
Inventory is also tight. The same report shows 798 active single-family listings, unchanged from last year, and only 218 of them under $1 million. I tell my buyers that a price chart is not the same thing as a negotiating position. If the house in front of you is priced right and well kept, expect competition.
Condos are a different story, and a more careful one
Condo sales were down 8.1% to 375, and active inventory climbed 7.8% to 2,509. Median days on market was 41 days, about where it was a year ago. Pending condo sales were 292 against 409 a year ago, a drop of 28.6%. That pending number is the one I would watch, because it hints at what closes in the coming weeks and months. One month does not make a trend, though, and I would not call a turn on a single data point.
Only 12% of condos sold above original asking, up from 8%, so most buyers still have room to negotiate. And 47% of condo sales, 175 of them, were at or under $500,000. The entry-level end is where the activity is. On every condo deal I ask for the association's budget, reserve study and insurance details before we talk price, because the monthly fees and special assessment risk can matter as much as the sticker price.
What I would do as a buyer right now
- Houses: get your financing documents in order before you tour, because 16 days on market leaves little time to think it over.
- Condos: use the extra supply to ask for time, repairs or credits, and read the association documents first.
- Either way: compare recent sales in the same building or neighborhood, not the island-wide median.
What I would do as a seller
If you own a house and are thinking of selling, the speed of sales and the share going over asking support pricing it accurately from day one rather than testing the market high. More than once I've watched an overpriced listing sit, take a price cut and end up selling for less than a well-priced one would have. Condo sellers face more competing listings, so presentation, building documents and a clear price matter more.
Frequently asked questions
Are Oahu home prices falling?
Not across the board. In September the single-family median fell 3.9% from a year earlier while the condo median rose 2.8%. Medians shift with the mix of what sells, so I look at the specific neighborhood or building before drawing conclusions.
Is now a good time to buy a condo?
There are more condos to choose from than a year ago, which helps you negotiate. Still, I would read the association's financials and insurance first, since those drive the real cost of owning.
Should I wait for prices to drop further?
I can't predict the market, and neither can anyone else. I tell buyers to buy when the numbers work for their own budget and plans, not on a guess about next quarter.
This article is general information, not legal, tax, insurance or financing advice. Figures are from the sources below and may be revised.
Sources: Honolulu Star-Advertiser, Oct. 7, 2026; List Sotheby's International Realty, Oahu Real Estate Market Report, September 2026 (citing Honolulu Board of Realtors).
Tony Kawaguchi, R(B), The Kawaguchi Group, eXp Realty. Hawaii broker, license RB-21841, 20+ years and $1B+ in Oahu sales, leading a team of 20+ agents.
If you want to talk through what these numbers mean for your own plans, call or message me and I will pull the recent sales for your neighborhood or building.