Photo: Daniel Ramirez, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (resized)
By Tony Kawaguchi, REALTOR (RS-66616) · Updated November 10, 2026
The median Oahu condo sold for $499,000 in October, down 6.7 percent from $535,000 a year earlier, according to resale figures the Honolulu Board of REALTORS released on November 6. The single-family median slipped 1.1 percent to $1,150,000. The Star-Advertiser noted it was the first time the condo median dipped under $500,000 since November 2025.
Whenever a monthly number makes the news, I get the same handful of questions from owners and buyers. Here are my answers for this one.
Are Oahu condo prices actually falling?
Some, but less than one headline suggests. The October median was down 4.6 percent from September's $523,000, and condo sales fell 23.5 percent from a year ago to 339. Sellers received a median 95.9 percent of their original list price, and condos took a median 49 days to sell, up from 44.
Then look at the year so far. The year-to-date condo median is $510,000, exactly where it was in both 2025 and 2024. A single month's median depends on which units happened to close. In October, 171 condo sales, half the total, were under $500,000, and a month weighted toward smaller or older units pulls the middle down without any one building losing value.
What has changed is supply. Oahu ended October with 2,506 active condo listings, up 7 percent, or about 7.1 months of supply. That gives buyers time to compare. When I sit down with a condo seller now, the first thing we look at is how many units in the same building are competing for the same buyer.
Why are single-family homes still selling so fast?
Because there are far fewer of them. The month ended with 805 active single-family listings, about 3.2 months of supply. The median home sold in 15 days, compared with 26 last October, and one in three closed above the original asking price. Year to date, the single-family median is up 2.6 percent to $1,180,000.
The number I'd watch is pending sales. Single-family contracts fell 16.2 percent from a year ago to 218. Closings usually trail contracts by one to three months, so November and December sales could come in lighter. That doesn't mean prices drop, but I wouldn't expect the October pace to hold through the holidays.
How much of this is mortgage rates?
A lot. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.18 percent as of November 5, the third weekly decline in a row, but still well above the 6.22 percent of a year ago. On a $400,000 loan, that gap works out to about $255 more a month in principal and interest. Board president Aaron Tangonan said higher rates are "putting additional pressure on buyers' budgets," and the slower condo sales and contract counts back that up.
I don't forecast rates, and I'd be careful with anyone who does it with confidence. If the numbers work at today's rate, I'd treat any later drop as a chance to refinance.
Is this a decent time to buy a condo?
For a buyer who's ready, there's more to choose from than there's been in a while. At the end of October, 49 percent of active condo listings, 1,218 units, were priced under $500,000. More choice also means more homework. Thin reserves are where special assessments tend to come from, so I read the reserve study and the budget before I let a buyer get attached to a view. My condo checklist covers what to request.
First-time buyers should also know about HHFDC's Hale Kamaaina Mortgage Program, a 30-year fixed-rate first mortgage funded by tax-exempt bonds. HHFDC targets a rate at least 50 basis points below market, and its program page listed 6.67 percent for government loans and 6.92 percent for conventional loans when I checked on November 10. For Honolulu, the purchase price limit is $866,346 outside targeted areas, and household income limits are $154,805 for one or two people and $178,025 for three or more. You also have to complete HUD-approved homebuyer counseling.
Demand has been strong. HBR reports 69 loans closed as of September 30, the first $30 million ran out in July, and $53.8 million in new funding was recently made available. HHFDC's October board resolution, though, describes a new bond issue of up to $65 million, so confirm current availability with a participating lender. This program is a mortgage, not down payment help. For that, see my posts on the City's zero-interest down payment loan and down payment assistance.
FAQ
Does a 6.7 percent drop in the median mean my condo lost 6.7 percent?
No. The median describes the mix of units that sold that month, not any one unit. For your place, I'd look at recent sales in your building and the ones around it. My home value page is a quick first look.
Where do these numbers come from?
The Honolulu Board of REALTORS compiles them from HiCentral MLS. They cover resales only, so new construction isn't included, and they count sales when escrow closes.
Should I wait until spring to sell?
For a single-family home, I wouldn't wait on account of this report. Inventory is tight and well-priced homes are moving. For a condo, timing matters less than pricing against the units you're competing with today.
This post is general information, not legal, tax, insurance or financing advice.
Sources: Honolulu Board of REALTORS, October 2026 resale report, November 6, 2026; Honolulu Star-Advertiser, November 7, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, November 5, 2026; HHFDC, Hale Kamaaina Mortgage Program; HHFDC, income and purchase price limits (as of June 13, 2026); HHFDC, Hale Kamaaina FAQ; HHFDC board resolution, 2026 Series A bonds, October 8, 2026.
Tony Kawaguchi, REALTOR, license RS-66616, The Kawaguchi Group, eXp Realty (RB-21841). 20+ years and $1B+ in Oahu sales, leading a team of 20+ agents.
If you want to know what October's numbers mean for your building or your street, call me at (808) 201-3577 or reach me through my contact page.